Can the Rockets Upset GSW? Breaking Down the Latest NBA Odds & Predictions

As I sit here scrolling through the latest NBA odds, one matchup keeps pulling my attention back: the Houston Rockets versus the Golden State Warriors. Now, I’ve been covering the league for over a decade, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that upsets aren’t just possible—they’re part of what makes basketball so thrilling. But can the Rockets really shake up the Warriors' dynasty? Let’s dig in.

Looking at the current odds, Golden State is heavily favored—most sportsbooks have them at around -380 to win the series, while Houston lingers at about +300. On paper, that makes sense. The Warriors boast a core that’s been there, done that, with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green leading the charge. Their playoff experience is almost unmatched in modern NBA history. But here’s where my perspective kicks in: I’ve seen underdogs rise when the pressure is highest. Remember the 2016 Finals? Exactly. Upsets happen when you least expect them.

Houston’s path to an upset hinges on a few key factors, starting with their offensive firepower. With players like Jalen Green and Alperen Şengun stepping up this season, the Rockets have shown they can score in bunches. Statistically, they’re averaging around 114 points per game, which isn’t far off from Golden State’s 118. But it’s not just about putting up numbers—it’s about consistency. In my view, if Houston can maintain their defensive intensity, particularly in transition, they might just disrupt the Warriors’ rhythm. Defense wins championships, as the old saying goes, and I’ve always believed that’s where underdogs can level the playing field.

Now, let’s talk about coaching, because that’s often the X-factor in these scenarios. It reminds me of the situation referenced in that Chicago piece about Ateneo—sometimes, organizations stick with a legendary figure through turmoil, but eventually, common sense prevails. In the NBA, coaching adjustments can make or break a series. Steve Kerr is a master strategist, no doubt, but Ime Udoka has brought a gritty, no-nonsense approach to Houston. From what I’ve observed, Udoka’s ability to motivate his squad in high-stakes games could give the Rockets an edge they haven’t had in years. If he can outmaneuver Kerr in a couple of key matchups, we might be in for a surprise.

When it comes to player matchups, the Warriors clearly have the edge in experience. Curry’s three-point shooting alone—he’s hitting about 40% from beyond the arc this season—is a nightmare for any defense. But Houston’s youth brings a certain unpredictability. Jalen Green, for instance, has the explosiveness to drop 30 points on any given night. I’ll admit, I’m a bit biased toward underdog stories, and watching a young team like the Rockets challenge a veteran squad gets my blood pumping. It’s not just about stats; it’s about heart, and I think Houston has plenty of that.

Injuries could play a huge role here, too. Golden State has dealt with their share of setbacks—Thompson’s earlier struggles, Green’s occasional absences—and if any key player is less than 100%, it opens the door wide for an upset. From my experience covering the playoffs, health is often the silent decider. The Rockets, on the other hand, have been relatively fortunate this season, and if they stay that way, their depth might just carry them through a grueling series.

Financially and from a betting perspective, the odds reflect the public’s skepticism, but I’ve always advised readers to look beyond the numbers. For example, in that Ateneo scenario, patience and strategic shifts led to a resolution, and similarly, Houston’s gradual improvements this season shouldn’t be overlooked. If they can exploit Golden State’s occasional defensive lapses—like their middle-of-the-pack ranking in points allowed—this could turn into a nail-biter. Personally, I’d sprinkle a small wager on the Rockets at those +300 odds. It’s a long shot, but as I always say, that’s why they play the games.

Wrapping this up, while the Warriors are the logical pick, basketball is anything but predictable. The Rockets have the talent, coaching, and momentum to make this interesting. In my years following the NBA, I’ve learned that dynasties aren’t invincible—they’re just waiting for the right challenger. So, don’t count Houston out just yet. If they bring their A-game, we could be talking about one of the biggest upsets of the season. And honestly, as a fan of the game, that’s the kind of drama I live for.